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Africa remains a prime market for lubricant brands seeking to grow their business and expand their footprint. The lubricants market size is estimated at 2.74 billion liters in 2025 and is expected to reach 3.26 billion liters by 2030, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.52% during the forecast period (2025-2030). Buoyed by an increasing population, a growing middle class with higher spending power and improved road infrastructure, vehicle uptake has increased, consequently boosting demand for lubricants. The continent is also undergoing industrialization, which is driving demand for industrial lubricants. This growth potential is being witnessed in the four regions of the continent: North, West, East and Southern Africa.

In East Africa, the lubricants market was valued at $1.05 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $1.56 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 5.0% from 2026 to 2032. According to Mordor Intelligence,¹ in 2024, the East African lubricants market encompassing both automotive and industrial applications was estimated at approximately 287.4 million liters. This figure is projected to grow at a CAGR exceeding 5%, reaching approximately 386.1 million liters by 2030. 

The primary drivers of this growth include the rising number of vehicles, particularly used imports and the expansion of industrial sectors such as manufacturing, mining, agriculture, power generation and construction. Additionally, infrastructure development and the adoption of renewable energy technologies are contributing to increased lubricant demand in the region. The automotive sector is the largest consumer of lubricants in this region. The most commonly used lubricants are engine oil, gear oil, transmission oil and brake fluid.

The automotive sector will continue to drive demand for lubricants in this region. There are several developments in this sector worth noting and analyzing to understand their impact on the lubricant industry in the medium and long term.

Increased demand for high-quality lubricants 
With increased vehicle uptake, a new generation of vehicles is entering the market, which requires higher-quality lubricants. The uptake of newer vehicles is being driven by an appreciation for newer models and new regulations that limit the age of imported vehicles. Due to this, there is a need for high-quality lubricants to meet the needs of these vehicles. Therefore, marketing high-quality products that meet the region’s needs will be crucial to entering this market and establishing a foothold.

Rise of motorcycles
As an alternative means of transportation, motorcycles have become increasingly prevalent in this region over the last decade. Currently, it is estimated that there are about 3.5-4 million motorcycles, and the number is on an upward trajectory. In Kenya, there are over 2 million internal combustion engine (ICE) motorcycles in operation, primarily serving as boda bodas (motorcycle taxis). Tanzania has approximately 1 million registered boda bodas, while Uganda has around 200,000 registered motorcycles, with estimates suggesting the actual number could be higher due to unregistered units.

These motorcycles are integral to the region’s transportation system, providing affordable and efficient mobility solutions, particularly in areas underserved by traditional public transportation or in cities where traffic congestion is prevalent.

Due to this increased uptake, the motorcycle oil demand has shown consistent growth. In 2024, the East African motorcycle sector is estimated to have consumed 43.2 million liters of lubricants. This consumption accounts for approximately 15% of the total East African lubricants market, underscoring the critical role motorcycles play in the region’s transportation infrastructure and the corresponding demand for maintenance products, such as lubricants.

Adoption of EVs
As sustainability discussions cut across different continents and industries, the African continent has not been left behind. In the automotive sector, there has been a surge in the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). These range from electric motorcycles, tuk-tuks (three-wheelers), passenger cars and buses. 

In Kenya, there has been significant growth in EV registrations, doubling to 5,294 in 2024 from 2,694 in 2023. This surge is largely attributed to government incentives such as tax reductions and the introduction of a special e-mobility electricity tariff. The majority of these EVs are two-wheelers, with 4,862 electric motorcycles registered in 2024, bringing the total to 8,097. Other registered EVs include 185 three-wheelers, 123 electric cars, 87 forklifts and 32 buses.

As of 2023, Tanzania had approximately 5,000 EVs, predominantly comprising motorcycles and tuk-tuks. The government has implemented policies such as VAT exemptions on EV components and mandatory registration for EVs to encourage adoption. In August 2024, Tanzania launched the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) electric train service between Dar es Salaam and Dodoma. This represents a significant step in the region’s transition toward electrification in the automotive sector. 

Although specific numbers are not readily available for Uganda, the country is actively promoting electric mobility. Companies have partnered with the government to replace traditional boda bodas with electric two-wheelers, aiming to reduce emissions and enhance sustainability in the transport sector.

Despite a gradual increase in the uptake of EVs, there is still a long way to go in terms of fully replacing ICE vehicles with EVs. Consequently, while this uptake will eventually affect the demand for lubricants, it is not expected to occur soon for the region or the African continent. In the meantime, what will be in demand are high-quality lubricants for ICE vehicles. Products that ensure engine efficiency and longevity, superior performance and extended drain intervals.

While the public and private sectors are working together to adopt more EVs, several challenges are prevalent.

• Lack of proper electricity infrastructure. To support the uptake and charging of EVs, stable power grids are crucial as a source of power. Unfortunately, in most African countries, including those in the East African region, the power grids are still insufficient in providing electricity to households. As of 2022, approximately 685 million people worldwide lacked access to electricity, with 570 million of these individuals residing in sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for over 80% of the global total. Therefore, to achieve this and also support the charging stations for EVs, there is still a long way to go in terms of investments and policy support.
• High acquisition cost. Whereas long-term ownership of an EV will be cheaper than owning an ICE vehicle, the initial upfront cost is very expensive, which is affecting the uptake of EVs. This price gap renders EVs unaffordable for a significant portion of the population, particularly in low-income segments. There are also a few tailored financing products for EVs, such as loans or leasing models, which limit access, especially for commercial operators like boda boda riders.

Other challenges include limited local technical expertise, where there is a shortage of trained technicians for EV maintenance and repair, which hinders user confidence and widespread adoption. There are also import dependency and taxation issues. Most EVs and their spare parts are imported, subject to taxes and duties that can significantly increase costs. Although some countries are introducing tax incentives, inconsistencies in policy frameworks reduce investor confidence. Consumer awareness and perception is another challenge affecting the uptake of EVs. Public knowledge about the benefits, costs and reliability of EVs is still limited, and misinformation or a lack of information deters potential buyers. Lastly, while some countries are developing e-mobility policies, implementation and coordination across ministries and stakeholders are often weak or delayed.

Nevertheless, there are still many opportunities for growth in the continent concerning the lubricants industry. However, where opportunities exist, it is essential to acknowledge the challenges that plague this market.

• Fluctuating raw material prices. The East African lubricants market faces challenges due to fluctuating raw material prices, particularly base oils and additives. Commodity prices for base oils increased by up to 12% in 2023 due to supply chain disruptions and market instability. This instability affects production costs for lubricant manufacturers, resulting in higher prices for end consumers and making it challenging for businesses to set competitive prices.
• Lack of local manufacturing capabilities. The East African lubricants market is heavily reliant on imports, with over 60% of lubricants imported in 2022 from countries like South Africa, India and the Middle East. This increases costs due to transportation and tariffs, limiting affordability and availability, especially in remote or underserved areas. Developing local manufacturing plants is crucial for improving market efficiency and reducing dependence on imports. While there are local blending plants, they are not meeting the region’s lubricants demand.
• High import tariffs. The East African Community (EAC) has significantly increased import tariffs on finished lubricants, reflecting a strategic shift to protect local industries (encourage local blending) and curb revenue losses from trade misinvoicing and undervaluation. Despite the use of imported lubricants to bridge the demand-supply deficit due to lower installed blending capacity, aggregately the price of lubricants increase.
• Counterfeit products. Counterfeit lubricants are a growing issue in the East African lubricants market, accounting for nearly 20% of lubricants sold in Kenya and Tanzania in 2023. These counterfeit products often fail to meet performance standards, resulting in engine damage and increased maintenance costs. This not only harms the reputation of legitimate brands but also raises safety concerns in the automotive and industrial sectors.
• Lack of awareness about lubrication and maintenance. The EAC reports that over 40% of vehicle owners in the region fail to follow manufacturer-recommended maintenance schedules for oil changes, resulting in inefficient lubricant use, higher maintenance costs and reduced vehicle longevity. This lack of awareness is crucial for sustaining long-term market growth in the region, as educating consumers about the importance of regular oil changes and quality lubricants is essential.

Looking ahead, the region presents numerous opportunities both in the automotive and industrial sector.

REFERENCE
1. www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/east-africa-lubricants-market

Dr. James Wakiru is the editor-in-chief of Lubezine Magazine, a Pan-African magazine serving Africa’s lubricants industry since 2009. He has over 20 years of experience spanning academia and the lubricant industry. His expertise includes lubrication technology, condition monitoring, data-driven maintenance and simulation-based decision support. Additionally, he serves as a senior lecturer at the Dedan Kimathi University of Technology in Kenya and holds a doctorate degree in mechanical engineering. You can reach him at james.wakiru@lubesafrica.com.